Net greenhouse gas emissions in the EU fell by 1.6 percent in 2025 compared with the previous year. The European Environment Agency published the preliminary estimate on November 9, 2026. The decline was slower than in either of the preceding two years. The agency’s projections show the bloc getting much closer to its 2030 climate target if member states also carry out the additional measures they have planned.
Key facts
- Preliminary estimates put the EU’s net emissions in 2025 at 38.7 percent below 1990 levels across the 27 member states.
- With existing measures, the agency projects a 48 percent reduction by 2030 compared with 1990.
- With additional planned measures, the projected cut rises to 54 percent. The binding EU target is at least 55 percent.
- Estimated emissions from buildings and domestic transport rose in 2025 compared with 2024.
Where progress slowed
The agency’s emissions indicator uses the scope of the EU climate target. It accounts for greenhouse gases removed by land and forests as well as emissions. It also includes the portions of international aviation and shipping covered by EU rules. The 2025 figure comes from a preliminary inventory. Member states initially report approximations based on the data available to them. The estimate can change when the full inventory is compiled. Each annual rate below compares net emissions for the entire EU with the previous year.
| Year | Change from previous year | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | −8.2% | Historical inventory data |
| 2024 | −2.5% | Historical inventory data |
| 2025 | −1.6% | Preliminary estimate |
The EU total combines sectors that moved in different directions. The agency estimates that energy supply emissions fell by 1.2 percent and industrial emissions by 2.4 percent. Building emissions rose by 0.8 percent and domestic transport emissions by 0.3 percent. Meanwhile, the preliminary inventory puts the net carbon sink from land use and forestry above its previous-year level. The agency estimates the extra net removals at 25 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent. A larger sink can bring the net total down even when emissions in some sectors rise.
Why national measures matter for 2030
The EU Emissions Trading System and the Effort Sharing Regulation cover different activities. Power and heat generation and industrial plants are among the activities covered by emissions trading. Effort Sharing sets national emissions targets for sectors including transport, buildings and agriculture. Emissions in those sectors were 21 percent below 2005 levels in 2024, and the agency’s preliminary estimate shows little further progress in 2025. The agency points to household decisions, including investment in heating and choices about how people travel, as part of the challenge in cutting emissions in those sectors.
With additional planned measures, the agency projects a 38 percent cut in Effort Sharing emissions by 2030 relative to 2005, against a target of 40 percent. That comparison uses a different baseline year and narrower coverage than the EU-wide net target of 55 percent below 1990. The two gaps therefore cannot be added together.
For the bloc-wide target, six percentage points separate the scenarios with existing and additional measures. The second scenario leaves a one-point gap to the target based on the rounded figures. The agency identifies timely implementation of planned policies as the next step for member states, especially in sectors where progress has slowed. How much transport and buildings contribute over the coming years will help determine whether the EU closes the gap.
